Hari umubano mushya uri kubakwa hagati ya Repubulika ya Demokarasi ya Congo na Israel ushobora kugira ingaruka ku buryo Kinshasa izakomeza guhangana n’intambara yo mu burasirazuba bw’igihugu.

Kuva Perezida Félix Tshisekedi yasura Israel mu ntangiriro za Nzeri 2026, ibintu byatangiye kugaragara mu buryo bushya.

Ntabwo ari ubucuruzi gusa.

Ntabwo ari dipolomasi gusa.

Kandi ntabwo ari uruzinduko rwa Perezida gusa.

Umutekano, ubwirinzi, amahugurwa ya gisirikare, ikoranabuhanga n’ubutasi biri mu by’ingenzi byaganiriweho.

Ku wa 1 Nzeri, Tshisekedi yabonanye na Perezida wa Israel Isaac Herzog ndetse na Minisitiri w’Intebe Benjamin Netanyahu i Yeruzalemu. Perezida wa RDC yavuze ko ibihugu byombi bishaka guha “urwego rushya” ubufatanye bwabyo, harimo umutekano, amahugurwa, ikoranabuhanga, ubuhinzi, ubuzima, amazi n’ishoramari.

Ariko ikibazo gihita kivuka ni iki:

Ni iki Congo ishaka kuri Israel muri iki gihe?

Kandi niba Israel igiye kongera ubushobozi bwa gisirikare n’ubutasi bwa FARDC, ese ibyo bishobora guhindura intambara ya M23?

Ikindi kibazo gikomeye kurushaho:

Ese u Rwanda rukwiye kugira impungenge kuri ubu bufatanye bushya bwa Kinshasa na Yeruzalemu?

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UMUBANO WA CONGO NA ISRAEL USHOBORA KWINJIRA MU CYICIRO GISHYA

Mu by’ukuri, umubano wa RDC na Israel ntabwo watangiye muri Nzeri 2026.

Ibihugu byombi bimaze imyaka bifitanye umubano mu nzego zitandukanye, ariko kuva Tshisekedi yatangira kwegera Israel cyane, cyane cyane kuva mu 2021, ubufatanye mu bijyanye n’umutekano bwagiye bwiyongera.

Mu 2021, ubwo Tshisekedi yasuraga Israel, abayobozi ba gisirikare ba Congo basinye amasezerano ajyanye n’amahugurwa ya gisirikare n’ubufasha bwa tekiniki.

Kuva icyo gihe, Israel yakomeje kugaragara mu bufatanye bwa Congo mu bijyanye n’ikoranabuhanga n’umutekano.

Critical Threats Project ivuga ko Israel yabaye umufatanyabikorwa w’ingenzi wa Congo mu bya gisirikare, kandi ko hari ibikoresho by’ubutasi n’indege zitagira abapilote byagiye bigurwa n’uruhande rwa Congo.

Ariko ubu hari ikintu gishya.

Uyu mubano urimo gushyirwa mu rwego rw’ubufatanye bwagutse kandi bwa strategic partnership.

Kandi umutekano w’uburasirazuba bwa Congo uri mu mpamvu zikomeye zituma ibyo biganiro bifata indi ntera.

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ISRAEL IGIYE GUFASHA CONGO GUTE?

Niba umuntu yumvise ko Israel na Congo bagiranye ubufatanye mu bya gisirikare, ashobora guhita atekereza ko Israel igiye kohereza abasirikare bayo ku rugamba kurwanya M23.

Ariko kugeza ubu nta tangazo rya Israel rivuga ko igiye kohereza ingabo zayo kurwana muri Congo.

Ahubwo icyagaragajwe ni ubufatanye mu:

• mahugurwa ya gisirikare,
• ikoranabuhanga ry’ubwirinzi,
• drones,
• ubutasi no gukusanya amakuru,
• itumanaho rya gisirikare,
• ibikoresho by’umutekano,
• ndetse no kongera ubushobozi bw’ingabo za FARDC.

Critical Threats yatangaje ko hari amakuru avuga ko uruzinduko rwa Tshisekedi rwagejeje ku masezerano azatuma Israel itangira guhugura brigade yihariye ya FARDC yari iyobowe n’umukoloneli wa Congo. Ariko amakuru yose arambuye kuri iyo gahunda ntabwo yatangajwe ku mugaragaro.

Ibi ni ingenzi.

Kuko niba ayo mahugurwa n’ibikoresho bishya bikomeje gutangwa, FARDC ishobora kongera ubushobozi bwo gukusanya amakuru, gukoresha drones, gutegura ibikorwa bya gisirikare no kurushaho guhuza ibikorwa by’ingabo ku rugamba.

Kandi ibyo byose bishobora kugira ingaruka ku buryo Kinshasa ikomeza guhangana na M23.

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KUKI CONGO IKENeye ISRAEL?

Aha ni ho ibisobanuro by’abasesenguzi Jason Stearns na Richard Moncrieff bihurira.

Jason Stearns, wigisha siyansi ya politiki muri Simon Fraser University, avuga ko Tshisekedi ubu akeneye Israel cyane kurusha mbere, cyane cyane kubera impamvu za gisirikare.

Impamvu iroroshye.

FARDC imaze imyaka ihanganye na M23, ariko yagiye igorwa no kwisubiza ibice byigaruriwe n’uwo mutwe.

M23 yigaruriye ibice binini bya Kivu ya Ruguru na Kivu y’Epfo, birimo Goma na Bukavu.

Ku bw’iyo mpamvu, Tshisekedi ari gushaka ubufasha aho ashobora kububona.

Kandi Israel ni igihugu kizwi cyane ku ikoranabuhanga rya gisirikare, drones, ubutasi ndetse n’amahugurwa y’ingabo.

Ni yo mpamvu Kinshasa ishobora kuba ibona Israel nk’umufatanyabikorwa ushobora gufasha kuziba bimwe mu byuho biri mu bushobozi bwa FARDC.

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RICHARD MONCRIEFF: UMUBANO WABO WUBAKIWE KU BIGANIRO BY’IGIHE KIREKIRE

Dr Richard Moncrieff, ukurikiranira hafi akarere k’Ibiyaga Bigari muri International Crisis Group, we avuga ko ubufatanye buri hagati ya Congo na Israel ari umusaruro w’ibiganiro byo ku rwego rwo hejuru bimaze imyaka bikomeza.

Avuga ko ibiganiro byabo byibanda ku bucuruzi na dipolomasi, ariko cyane cyane bikibanda ku gisirikare n’umutekano.

Ibi rero bituma uruzinduko rwa Tshisekedi rwo muri Nzeri rudafatwa nk’ikintu cyatangiye uwo munsi.

Ahubwo ni nk’aho ibyo bihugu byombi byageze ku kindi cyiciro cy’umubano wari umaze igihe wubakwa.

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ARIKO HARI IKINDI KINTU GIKOMEYE: AMERIKA

Moncrieff avuga ko Congo ifite indi mpamvu ikomeye yo gukomeza kwegera Israel.

Ni Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.

Kugeza ubu Washington ifite uruhare rukomeye mu biganiro bigamije gukemura amakimbirane hagati ya Congo n’u Rwanda.

Congo rero ishaka gukomeza kuba hafi ya Amerika.

Kandi Israel na Amerika bifitanye umubano ukomeye cyane.

Ni yo mpamvu Moncrieff abona ko Kinshasa ishobora kubona ubufatanye na Israel nk’uburyo bwo gukomeza kwerekana ko iri ku murongo umwe n’ibihugu bifitanye umubano ukomeye na Washington.

Ibi ni byo bituma uyu mubano uba ikibazo cya geopolitiki, atari ikibazo cya gisirikare gusa.

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NONE SE U RWANDA RUKWIYE GUTERWA IMPUNGE N’AYA MASEZERANO?

Iki ni cyo kibazo gikomeye cyane.

Kandi igisubizo ntigishobora kuba “yego” cyangwa “oya” gusa.

Hari ibintu byinshi bigomba kurebwa.

ICYA MBERE: ISRAEL ISANZWE IFITANYE UMUBANO N’U RWANDA

Israel imaze igihe ifitanye umubano mwiza n’u Rwanda, harimo ubufatanye mu bijyanye n’umutekano n’ikoranabuhanga.

Ni ukuvuga ko Israel ubu iri kugirana umubano ukomeye na Congo, ariko ntabwo ibyo bivuze ko yahise icana umubano wayo n’u Rwanda.

Ahubwo Israel iri mu mwanya udasanzwe wo kuba ifitanye umubano n’impande zombi.

Kandi ibi ni byo Stearns agaragaza.

Avuga ko kuri Israel nta kwivuguruza gukomeye kubamo kuba inshuti y’u Rwanda kandi ikaba inshuti ya Congo.

Kuko Israel ishaka kwagura umubano wayo hirya no hino ku isi no kubona abafatanyabikorwa benshi.

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ICYA KABIRI: CONGO ISHAKA KO ISRAEL ISUBIRA KU MUBANO WAYO N’U RWANDA

Aha ni ho ikibazo gishobora gukomera.

Stearns avuga ko yatekereza ko mu biganiro Tshisekedi yagiranye n’abayobozi ba Israel, Kinshasa yaba yaragaragaje ko ishaka ko Israel igabanya ubufatanye bwayo n’u Rwanda.

Ariko na we avuga ko atatekereza ko Israel izahita ibikora.

Impamvu ni uko Israel ifite inyungu zayo mu gukomeza umubano n’impande zombi.

Ni ukuvuga ko Congo ishobora kuba ishaka gukoresha umubano wayo mushya na Israel kugira ngo igire ijambo ku buryo Israel ibona ikibazo cy’u Rwanda na M23.

Ariko Israel na yo ishobora guhitamo gukomeza uwo mwanya wo kuba hafi y’impande zombi.

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ICYA GATATU: UBUFATANYE BWA GISIRIKARE BUSHOBORA GUHINDURA IMBARAGA ZIRI KU RUBUGA

Aha ni ho impungenge z’u Rwanda, niba zihari, zishobora kumvikana cyane.

Niba Congo ibonye drones nyinshi, ikoranabuhanga ry’ubutasi, ibikoresho by’itumanaho n’amahugurwa meza, FARDC ishobora kongera ubushobozi bwayo.

Kandi niba ibyo bikoresho bikoreshwa mu bikorwa byo kurwanya M23, bishobora kugira ingaruka ku mikorere y’ingabo za Congo ku rugamba.

Ariko nanone ntitugomba kubyitiranya no kuvuga ko Israel yamaze gufata icyemezo cyo kujya kurwana ku ruhande rwa Congo.

Nta gihamya yemeza ko Israel igiye kohereza ingabo zayo kurwanya M23.

Icyagaragaye ni ubufatanye mu kongera ubushobozi bwa FARDC.

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AMASEZERANO YA CONGO NA ISRAEL ARASHOBORA KUBA ARENZE IGISIRIKARE

Hari ikindi kintu cy’ingenzi cyagaragaye muri Nzeri.

Congo na Israel batangaje ko bashaka gukomeza ibiganiro bigamije gufungura ambasade ya Israel ihoraho i Kinshasa, ndetse Congo ikimura ambasade yayo ikava i Tel Aviv ikajya i Yeruzalemu.

Ibi ntabwo ari ikibazo cya gisirikare.

Ni ikimenyetso cya dipolomasi.

Bisobanura ko Kinshasa ishaka ko umubano wayo na Israel ukura mu rwego rw’ubucuti busanzwe ukagera ku rwego rw’ubufatanye bwagutse.

Kandi ibyo birimo umutekano, ikoranabuhanga, ishoramari, ubuhinzi, amazi, ubuzima ndetse n’ubwirinzi.

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ESE ISRAEL ISHOBORA GUFASHA KUGARURA AMAHORO?

Iki ni ikibazo gikwiye gutandukanywa no gufasha Congo mu ntambara.

Gufasha FARDC kongera ubushobozi ntabwo bivuze guhita uzana amahoro.

Ariko Israel ishobora kugira indi nshingano ishoboka.

Ni ugukoresha umubano wayo n’impande zitandukanye.

Israel ifitanye umubano na Congo.

Ifitanye n’u Rwanda.

Ifitanye n’Amerika.

Bityo, niba mu gihe kiri imbere Israel igize uruhare mu biganiro by’umutekano cyangwa igafasha mu rwego rwa dipolomasi, ishobora kuba ifite imiyoboro yo kugera ku bantu benshi.

Ariko kugeza ubu, nta tangazo rivuga ko Israel yafashe inshingano yo kuba umuhuza mukuru w’amahoro hagati ya Congo n’u Rwanda cyangwa hagati ya Kinshasa na M23.

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NONE INTAMBARA YA CONGO IRASHOBORA KURANGIRA KUBERA ISRAEL?

Abasesenguzi Jason Stearns na Richard Moncrieff ntibabona ibintu mu buryo bworoshye.

Stearns avuga ko nta kimenyetso gihagije kigaragaza ko intambara iri hafi kurangira.

Impamvu ni uko impande zitandukanye zikomeje kubona inyungu mu gukomeza imirwano cyangwa zikaba zitarabona impamvu ihagije yo kugira ibyo zireka.

M23 iracyafite ibice yigaruriye.

Kinshasa ikomeje gutsimbarara ku gisubizo cy’umutekano.

U Rwanda na rwo rukomeje guhakana ibirego rushinjwa bijyanye na M23.

Kandi ibiganiro by’amahoro biracyashakisha uburyo bwo kubona igisubizo kirambye.

Ni yo mpamvu Israel ishobora kongera ubushobozi bwa Congo, ariko ntishobora kuba igisubizo cyonyine cy’ikibazo kimaze imyaka myinshi.

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IKIBAZO GIKOMEYE: ESE U RWANDA RUKWIYE GUTERWA IMPUNGE?

Iyo turebye ibimenyetso biriho, hari impamvu zituma u Rwanda rukurikiranira hafi uyu mubano, cyane cyane kubera ko ubufatanye bwa Israel na Congo bukubiyemo umutekano n’ubwirinzi.

Niba Israel izafasha FARDC mu ikoranabuhanga, ubutasi, drones n’amahugurwa, ibyo bishobora kongera ubushobozi bwa gisirikare bwa Congo.

Kandi ibyo bishobora guhindura imiterere y’intambara.

Ariko hari ikindi kintu kigabanya igitekerezo cy’uko aya masezerano yahita aba ikibazo gikomeye kuri Kigali.

Israel ntabwo yaciye umubano n’u Rwanda.

Ahubwo iracyafite umubano na rwo.

Kandi Stearns na Moncrieff bombi berekana ko Israel ishobora gushaka gukomeza uwo mwanya wo gukorana n’impande zombi.

Ni ukuvuga ko uyu mubano udakwiye gusobanurwa gusa nk’aho Israel yafashe uruhande rwa Congo irwanya u Rwanda.

Ahubwo ushobora no kurebwa nk’uburyo Israel irimo kwagura inyungu zayo muri Afurika, mu gihe Congo yo ishaka kongera ubushobozi bwa gisirikare no gukomeza umubano wayo na Washington.

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ICYO TUGOMBA GUTEGEREZA MU MEZI ARI IMBERE

Ibintu bitatu ni byo bizatanga ishusho nyayo y’icyo aya masezerano azaba asobanuye.

Icya mbere ni amahugurwa ya FARDC n’ubufasha bwa gisirikare bwa Israel.

Niba bizashyirwa mu bikorwa ku rwego ruri kuvugwa, bizagaragaza ko ubufatanye bw’umutekano bwinjiye mu cyiciro gishya.

Icya kabiri ni ibikoresho n’ikoranabuhanga Congo izagura cyangwa izahabwa.

Drones, ubutasi, itumanaho n’ubwirinzi bishobora kugira uruhare runini mu bushobozi bwa FARDC.

Icya gatatu ni uruhare rwa Israel muri dipolomasi y’akarere.

Niba Israel ikomeje kuba hafi ya Congo ariko ikagumana n’umubano wayo n’u Rwanda, ishobora kuba imwe mu mpande zifite umwanya udasanzwe wo kumva impande zombi.

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UMUSOZO

Bityo rero, ibyo tubona hagati ya Israel na Congo ntabwo ari uruzinduko rwa Perezida gusa.

Ni umubano uri kwinjira mu kindi cyiciro.

Congo irashaka Israel kubera ikoranabuhanga, ubwirinzi, amahugurwa n’ubutasi.

Israel na yo ibona muri Congo umufatanyabikorwa w’ingenzi muri Afurika ndetse n’isoko ry’ikoranabuhanga n’ibikoresho by’umutekano.

Kandi inyuma y’ibi byose hari Amerika, u Rwanda, M23 ndetse n’intambara imaze imyaka myinshi mu burasirazuba bwa Congo.

Ni yo mpamvu ikibazo gikomeye atari gusa kumenya niba Israel izaha Congo ibikoresho.

Ikibazo gikomeye ni uko ibyo bikoresho bizakoreshwa, uko bizahindura ubushobozi bwa FARDC, n’uko Israel izakomeza kuringaniza umubano wayo hagati ya Kinshasa na Kigali.

Kugeza ubu, nta gihamya ko Israel igiye kujya ku rugamba kurwanya M23 mu izina rya Congo.

Ariko hari ibimenyetso bihagije byerekana ko ubufatanye bw’umutekano hagati ya Israel na RDC buri kujya ku rwego rushya.

Kandi niba ubu bufatanye buzakomeza kwaguka, intambara yo mu burasirazuba bwa Congo ishobora kubona undi mukinnyi ukomeye mu bijyanye n’ikoranabuhanga, ubutasi n’amahugurwa.

Niba ibyo bizazana amahoro cyangwa bizongera ubushobozi bwa gisirikare bwa Kinshasa gusa, ni ikibazo kizagaragazwa n’ibizakurikiraho.

Ariko ikigaragara uyu munsi ni kimwe:

Congo na Israel bari kongera kwegerana, kandi umutekano w’uburasirazuba bwa Congo uri mu mpamvu zikomeye ziri gutuma uyu mubano uba ingenzi.